Investment Basics - Return to Risk Ratio
When investment market is not working for you, the amount of money you may lose in one particular investment event is what we call risk. When represent risk with an R index number. We identify the possible worst situation and the worst loss that can happen when the item did not progress according to our plan. When you start estimating the amount of risk, the R, you bear in an investment item, you are focusing on the return to risk ratio. Perhaps you are already doing the same in other aspects of your life and now is the time to apply it to money.
When you are given two choices, how would you come up with your decision? For example, there are two different methods for you to go home, one is to go on the high way, and another one is to go through the street. If you choose the high way, you may be able to get home within 30 minutes if everything is smooth. But there is a possibility that there is a traffic accident and you would need two more hours to get home. Choice number two is to try the streets with fewer cars. There are many traffic lights and whatever the traffic is, you would need 45 minutes to get home.
You may consider the benefit of getting home quicker and the risk of being trapped in traffic accidents to come up with your final decision. The same thinking process can be used in investment. We consider the potential return and the possible loss and see if the ratio between the two is meaningful.
The best investors use this return to risk ratio to assess their investment opportunities. A seasoned professional investor would always start an investment consideration with the possible amount of money he could lose in a particular investment. And we denote the amount by R. Let say the expected return is 3 times of the risk you bear, we say this is a 3R opportunity. Whether we are talking about stock, mutual fund, property or any other investment vehicle, we use this same system to categorize them. The assets are just the tools. What we concern is the money. So a 2R in stock market is in substance the same as a 2R in the property market. They all mean an opportunity to earn twice the amount of money you may lose. The below example would make it clear.
Assume the property market is going up. You notice the chance and are buying a house and selling it immediately to monetize the opportunity. The price of the house is $80,000 and you got a leverage to do the acquisition. The amount you must pay is $5,000. If you couldn’t sell the house promptly, you would lose the whole amount of $5,000. Hence, the risk factor R is $5,000. The price you aim to make a profit of $20,000 and sell the house is $100,000. Therefore, this is a 4R investment opportunity because the expected return is 4 times the amount of money you could possibly lose.
Perhaps your prediction was too optimistic and the best price you could get someone to buy is $90,000. The profit becomes $10,000 and it becomes a 2R investment because the amount you earn is 2 times the amount you risked.
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