Oil & Currency Trading
Wall Street analysts watch oil prices like hawks. During the early part of 2008, oil prices skyrocketed from near $75 to almost $140 within a few short months. This was more than a 100% increase in oil prices in a few months. All over the world, countries started feeling huge pressures on their balance of payment accounts. Many hedge fund managers heavily speculated on the increase in oil price. Some made a windfall, other lost when the oil prices suddenly collapsed.
It is being studied whether the increase in the oil prices was due to speculation by the hedge funds. When the stock markets crashed in the middle of 2008, most of the hedge funds had to liquidate their investments in crude oil futures to cover the redemption pressure on them. Oil prices collapsed. Oil prices are down now due to low consumer demand because of the global recession. But it is being predicted by the experts that with a recovery in the global economy, the oil demand will rise and the prices will go up again. Oil demand in China and India plays a major role now.
As oil prices go up, consumers have to spend more on oil. The more they spend on oil, the less they spend on other products. The less they spend on other products, the less profit other companies make. Declining profits means declining stock prices.
The opposite case is also true. The less the oil prices become, the more Wall Street becomes exuberant about the profit potential of companies. This increased exuberance translates into increase in stock prices. Two large futures exchanges are used to determine the prices of crude oil. One is the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYME) and the other is the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE).
Historically, rising oil prices have been associated with falling stock markets. NYME is where most of the crude oil futures are traded. By monitoring the movement of the crude oil futures in NYME, you can develop a feel of the future economic situation of the United States. Since oil is heavily traded in US Dollar, this affects the US Dollar. The net effect is however a bit complicated.
Lets take a look at it. When oil prices increase, the demand for USD also increases as most of the countries need USD to pay for their oil bills. Increased demand for USD means that it should become stronger and appreciate.
But this is not the whole picture. Increased oil prices also affect the US economy. The question is which effect is more important for the currency markets.
The effect varies for different currency pairs. Suppose you are watching a currency pair that involves the USD and a currency representing a country that does well during the times of high oil prices. Take Canada that has huge oil reserves after Saudi Arabia. The effect would be depreciation in the value of USD/CAD pair. US imports more oil from Canada than any other country. And if you are watching a currency pair that involves USD and a currency whose economy is harmed by the rising oil prices, the demand for USD will rise.
So some currencies have positive correlation with oil prices and other currencies have negative correlation with rising oil prices. The currency pair CAD/JPY shows the strongest reaction to rising oil prices. Japan imports almost 100% oil.
Watch for CAD/JPY currency pair, when oil prices are going to rise again. CAD is positively correlated with oil prices. JPY is negatively correlated. So CAD/JPY has the strongest reaction to the increase in oil prices. It can be a very good currency pair to trade during times of oil price boom.
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